Mid- and Long-Range Weather Forecasting

Entropy Limited develops models for estimating total seasonal and annual precipitation and average temperatures for defined geographic regions with lead times of one to twelve months. Global ocean and atmospheric weather data for the past century and a half are utilized, as well as local and regional weather records. These models are built for use in water availability, electric power demand and agricultural requirement planning.

Long-Range Weather forecasting

Entropy Limited processed a database of 126 years of ocean and atmospheric weather information covering a substantial portion of the northern hemisphere, with special emphasis on the mid- and north-Pacific Ocean and North America, involving hundreds of thousands of variables, to find statistical patterns indicative of long-range weather conditions, enabling the forecasting of droughts in California for the Office of Water Research & Technology of the U.S. Department of the Interior with adequate lead time for planning. Included were atmospheric meteorological data for stations spanning about one-third of the globe, Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature data, Zurich sun spot numbers, and site-specific hydrologic data on surface stream flows, soil moisture, and tree rings. This early work identified sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific (El Nino) as important in mid- and long-range weather forecasting. For the National Weather Service, Entropy Limited subsequently identified precipitation forecasting patterns for key agricultural areas in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington states) with 6 and 7 month lead times. For the Salt River Project, EL produced a long range forecasting system for Arizona water and energy resources planning.

Seasonal Electricity Demand

At the request of Arizona's Salt River Project, Entropy Limited developed a model to forecast summer temperature and humidity combinations with 8 month lead times. This "discomfort index" model was used to provide information for planning future energy needs with respect to air conditioning and other requirements for electricity load planning.

Long-Range Precipitation Forecasting

Entropy Limited developed a seasonal precipitation model for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) which drew upon U.S. climatological data, western U.S. precipitations and temperatures, world monthly precipitation and temperatures for California.

Canadian Weather Forecasting

At the request of the Canadian Weather Service, EL provided technical assistance for the development of monthly and seasonal forecasts of Canadian weather patterns.

Smog in the Grand Canyon, Bryce Canyon and Glen Canyon

Entropy Limited studied industrial, meteorological and related data for southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico for the Salt River Project. This study identified the contributions of the various risk factors to air pollution in the Grand Canyon, Bryce Canyon and Glen Canyon in the American Southwest.

 

HOME    Publications   Client list